Bankroll Simulator
Monte Carlo risk-of-ruin analysis with visual trajectories
Simulator
Configure Simulation
Set your parameters and run 500 simulated sessions to see the distribution of outcomes.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is risk of ruin?
Risk of ruin is the probability that you lose your entire bankroll before either reaching a goal or completing a set number of bets. Even with a positive edge, there's always some risk of ruin if your bankroll is small relative to your bet size.
What is a Monte Carlo simulation?
A Monte Carlo simulation runs hundreds or thousands of random trials to model the range of possible outcomes. Each path represents one possible sequence of wins and losses. The aggregate shows how likely different results are.
How big should my bankroll be?
A common guideline is 200–300 bet units for a 1–2% edge. For a $25 bet with a 1% edge, that's $5,000–$7,500. The smaller your edge, the bigger the bankroll you need to weather variance. This simulator helps you find the right number for your situation.
Why do I sometimes go broke even with an edge?
Variance. A positive edge means you'll win in the long run, but short-term results are random. If your bankroll can't absorb a bad streak, you go broke before the edge has time to manifest. Larger bankrolls and smaller bet sizes reduce this risk.
Monte Carlo Bankroll Simulator
This free bankroll simulator runs 500 Monte Carlo trials to show the range of outcomes for your gambling strategy. See your risk of ruin, median outcome, best and worst cases, and a visual chart of all simulated paths.
Why Simulate?
Expected value tells you the average outcome, but it hides the variance. Two strategies with the same EV can have wildly different risk profiles. Simulation reveals the full picture — including the worst-case scenarios that EV alone can't show.